Thursday, March 06, 2008

Global Warming Challenge 1

If global warming is "settled science" why are there no predictions, save AlGore's, for near-term effects. You can get all kinds of predictions for 2050 and 2100, but none for 2010. Ballistics is "settled" science. Propel an object weighing X grams with Y force at Z angle and you can predict very accurately the trajectory of that object. For us expert high school physics students it was always done in a vacuum to eliminate the complications of air resistance, wind speed and the like. For the settled science of AGW predictions are always made so far in the future that no one will remember the prediction.

AlGore is the only one who has made a short term prediction. He has predicted total meltdown of the Artic in 5 years. Year one ended up with 20% more ice than the previous year. Must be going to start next year. He didn't say if it was going to loose 20% per year or just do it all in one year.

So, here's the challenge. Predict the annual, semidecadal and decadal temperature change. If the predictions fail, they your settled science may not be all that settled.

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